News Briefs & Updates: (Thursday, 12 March, 1:30 p.m. HST)

→ Flash flood warning issued for Oahu until 2:45 p.m., unless extended by the weather service.

→ Flood watch issued for all Hawaiian islands through Saturday, unless extended or alert upgrades.1

Several other National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories issued.

→ Rainfall average from yesterday reported to be about 2 inches for the state, according to preliminary NWS rain gauge data.

→ The weather event’s peak forecasted for Friday and Saturday.

→ Winter storm watch through Saturday for Big Island mountain summits.

→ On O’ahu Neighborhood Boards canceled scheduled meetings for Thursday, March 12.

→ Emergency shelters will open by 5 p.m. around O’ahu as a precautionary measure for flood evacuations.

The governor of Hawaii, Josh Green, issued a second emergency proclamation that activated the disaster relief fund.

Monday, 9 March, 9 p.m. HST

Hawaiʻi local and state agencies respond to possible impacts from Kona storm

Ahead of the incoming storm, Governor Josh Green issued an emergency proclamation.

“We have big storms coming. First in Kaui. It’ll be heavy rains, there should be some flooding, and we’re concerned about that, concerned enough to do emergency proclamations to get some extra resources out into the community,” Green said in a video message on social media.

The order allows state agencies to mobilize resources quickly and temporarily suspend certain regulations to speed up response and recovery efforts.2

Local and state emergency management agencies are circulating information on social media and urge residents and visitors to sign up for emergency alerts, monitor official social media pages, and tune in to local media reports.

Each of Hawaiʻi’s four counties issue local emergency alerts through several communication channels. The states Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency compiled links to these communication resources online:

Get Alerts

Hawaiian Electric advised that severe weather can cause temporary power outages. The company provides updates regularly on social media. Downed lines and outages can be reported online.

In the event of a power outage, water utilities say to keep water use to a minimum.

The Hawai‘i State Department of Land and Natural Resources has closed several state parks on Oahu and Kaui. Additionally, the agency stopped issuing camping permits for all state parks until further notice.

Kauaʻi

• Polihale State Park: Closed to both day and overnight use, as of Monday, March 9, 2026, at 3 p.m.

• Kalalau Trail: Closed until further notice, as of Monday, March 9, 2026, at 3 p.m.

• Kōkeʻe State Park: People who are camping overnight at Kōkeʻe State Park on Monday, March 9, 2026, may stay until Tuesday, March 10, at 11 a.m. Thereafter, camping will be suspended until further notice.

Oʻahu

• Kāʻena Point, Mokulēʻia Section: Permitted vehicle access will be closed as of Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at 1 a.m.

The agency is working to evacuate campers and hikers in these areas.

“DLNR is asking for everyone’s cooperation with this announcement of area closures,” the department press release reads. “People are advised to avoid forested and coastal areas due to the dangers of rising streams, flash flooding, falling trees, storm surge, or high surf.”

Visitors and residents should expect the possibility of additional closures that may limit public services and spaces in the next few days as the storm develops. Many events have been cancelled around the islands.

Monday, 9 March, 4 p.m. HST

Powerful Kona storm expected to bring flooding, severe weather to Hawaiʻi this week

A powerful Kona storm is expected to move into Hawaiʻi this week, bringing the threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, strong winds, and thunderstorms across the islands through the weekend.

According to the Honolulu Forecast Office, the storm could affect the state from Tuesday through at least Saturday as a developing low-pressure system northwest of the islands pulls deep tropical moisture toward Hawaiʻi.

The first impacts could arrive as early as Tuesday on Kauaʻi and Oʻahu, where the risk of flash flooding is expected to increase as the storm approaches. The threat of heavy rain and flooding is expected to spread eastward later in the week, eventually affecting Maui County and the Big Island.

Weather conditions are expected to develop beginning Tuesday as the system strengthens and moves closer to the state.

Meteorologists say the storm will pull large amounts of moisture over the islands, creating conditions for repeated rounds of heavy rain. Some areas could see rain falling over the same locations for long periods, which increases the risk of flash flooding.

Flooding concerns could grow later in the week if heavy rain continues for several days. Saturated ground can make it easier for additional rain to run off quickly into streams, roads and low-lying areas.

Strong winds may also develop later in the week as the storm intensifies. Those winds could be strong enough in some areas to knock down trees or power lines.

Thunderstorms are also expected to become more likely by midweek. Some of those storms could become severe, bringing damaging wind gusts, and possibly hail.

The storm could also create hazardous conditions for boaters and air travel. Rough seas, thunderstorms, and strong winds are expected over coastal waters, while periods of heavy rain could reduce visibility for pilots.

Forecasters say it is still too early to determine exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, but confidence is growing that the islands will see several days of unsettled weather.

Red Cross of Hawaiʻi urges residents to be prepared for disasters. Condominium insurance costs are rising in Hawaiʻi for two particular reasons. Red light camera enforcement goes into effect. Law enforcement on the use of technology in Waikīkī and around the county. All that and more coming up.

Sen. Sharon Moriwaki and Rep. Adrian Tam hosted a community town hall last week at Jefferson Elementary School in Waikīkī. They brought agency leaders from the American Red Cross, the Hawaiʻi Insurance Division, the state Department of Transportation, and the state Department of Law Enforcement to brief residents on several issues, ideas, and projects.

Disaster preparedness

Dan Anderson, preparedness specialist with the American Red Cross of Hawaiʻi, opened with a straightforward message: preparedness must happen before the sirens sound.

“We need to be better prepared than we’ve ever been before,” he said, urging households to make a plan with family, friends, and neighbors, especially vulnerable residents like senior citizens, as climate-driven disasters are increasing regionally and globally.

Tropical cyclone frequency is expected to increase, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study. Associated wind speeds, rainfall rates, and storm surge heights are projected to increase, according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment, while hotter and drier conditions are expanding wildfire risk and severity.

NOAA projects sea levels around Hawaiʻi could rise 1.5 feet by 2050, which would increase coastal flooding from high tide and storm surge events impacting low-lying neighborhoods like Waikīkī. Combined, these shifts mean storms, flooding, wildfire, and extreme heat are expected to collide more often, placing additional pressure on emergency response, insurance markets, and local infrastructure.

He emphasized learning evacuation routes and procedures, and the importance of creating an emergency to-go kit with food, water, and essential supplies, like medications. He walked residents through lessons learned from recent events, including the Lahaina fires and the tsunami evacuations.

High-rise residents may not always need to evacuate during a tsunami if they’re above certain floors and moving up at least four floors instead of immediately running out the door. During the tsunami event earlier this year, people evacuated when they did not need to. This backed up traffic out of Waikīkī and throughout Honolulu for hours, impacting emergency personnel response times.

“What we learned in Lahaina was that the radio is about the only communication that was really reliable,” he said, instructing to add a crank radio to emergency kits because communications can fail. He also flagged HNL Alert and the Red Cross app as core tools for information.

Anderson cautioned against complacency about wildfire risk in urban Honolulu. He said embers can travel roughly a mile on windy days, which matters for neighborhoods abutting slopes like Diamond Head.

Residents should not assume help will arrive immediately during a major disaster, Anderson warned.

“You may be on your own,” he said. “One of the major reasons for death, disaster and poor results is because we don’t have these conversations with our family, our friends, and our network.”

He closed with a concrete, near-term offer: The Red Cross offers free smoke-alarm installations statewide, stressing that home fires kill more people in Hawaiʻi than other natural hazards.

Need a smoke alarm?

Build Your 14-Day Disaster Supply Kit

Condo insurance

Hawaiʻi Insurance Commissioner Scott Saiki said condo insurance premiums are rising for two reasons: disasters risk in Hawaiʻi and the cost of reinsurance.

“We have all the potential disasters here that causes insurance rates to spike, especially now with what is happening with our environment,” Saiki said. “Insurers are watching and modeling for environmental risks, and unfortunately, Lahaina put Hawaiʻi on the map as a potential risk factor.”

Reinsurance, the second notable driver in insurance cost, is essentially insurance that insurance companies buy for themselves to cover payouts for claims. When reinsurers raise their prices, insurance companies pass those increases down to condo associations and homeowners. Saiki said most reinsurers are based outside the United States and don’t fall under Hawaiʻi’s insurance regulations.

“Reinsurance companies are not regulated by the states because most of them are foreign companies. They are operating in places like the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, the UK,” Saiki said. “They can charge whatever they want for reinsurance.”

To ease the pressure, lawmakers passed Senate Bill 1044, signed into law as Act 296, that:

• Reactivated the Hawaiʻi Hurricane Relief Fund, created a layer of condominium hurricane insurance up to $90 million.

• Authorized the Hawaiʻi Property Insurance Association to provide non-hurricane condominium property insurance.

• Created a condominium loan fund to assist with repair and maintenance.

Saiki said a building’s ability to get insurance also depends on whether it keeps up with maintenance, since it follows Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines. The condition and value of a building contributes to insurability.

During the town hall, a resident pushed back on the idea that disasters are the only factor. One longtime condo owner said poor oversight within associations is also a driver.

“Self-governance is a myth,” he said, arguing that without proper oversight, condo boards can ignore maintenance until repairs become expensive emergencies, thwarting a building’s ability to qualify for insurance.

Hawaii Hurricane Relief Fund Info

Law enforcement technology

Hawaiʻi Department of Transportation Director Ed Sniffen detailed three enforcement programs: red-light, speed, and noise cameras selected by crash and violation data and placed where courts can process cases. He said the goal is deterrence: camera locations are disclosed and warnings preceded citations.

Since red-light cameras went active, citations fell roughly 70% as behavior changed, Sniffen said. Crashes caused by red-light running at those intersections dropped about 75%, and overall crashes declined as well, he said. Speed enforcement, which ran an extended warning period, is now transitioning to citations, with an initial focus on the most dangerous violations to avoid overwhelming the courts while targeting risk.

On noise cameras, currently in a pilot phase, Sniffen said the devices can pinpoint the loud vehicle and capture audio/decibel readings for potential future enforcement, which would require legislative action to implement.

Sniffen underscored the stakes: 112 roadway deaths so far this year, statewide, with 93% linked to speed, impairment, or distraction.

“One-hundred people died for reasons that were absolutely 100% avoidable,” he said.

State Department of Law Enforcement Director Mike Lambert described technology meant to counter staffing shortages and speed up case work. He said Honolulu Police Department staffing is down about 20%, while 27% in sheriff shortages and technology can help cushion these shortages and to have more eyes on the ground to assist with traffic and speeding monitoring. Lambert also discussed ideas for license-plate readers for faster suspect vehicle alerts and drone as first responder deployments that can arrive in roughly 60–90 seconds to record scenes and reassure victims that help is en route, which Lambert said is enough to make suspects flee.

He explained how video search with AI can collapse hours of investigation work, for example, pulling every white truck that passed a camera near the time of a crime into a quick review package.

He addressed “Big Brother” concerns by stressing that compliant behavior blends into the background.

“If you’re not breaking the law, you’re just a piece of hay in the haystack,” Lambert said.

Consistent with the Red Cross, Lambert warned against broadcasting evacuations or stockpiled supplies on social media during crises because social media posts can invite burglary when neighborhoods are empty.

“Don’t brag about how prepared you are. Be discreet,” he said.

He also emphasized personal belongings should be an afterthought during a disaster event or evacuation. Getting household members to safety should be the priority during emergency situations

“What cannot be replaced are people,” Lambert said.

The transportation director noted a report will be released at the end of November that was influenced by the evacuation issues experienced during the tsunami in July. Sniffen said the report will outline how “we can better evacuate during those types of situations.”

I’m Anthony Albidrez. A heartfelt memo about myself later.

For now, here are weather and climate briefs from across the islands:

Climate context: 2024 was the planet’s hottest year on record, expect another record breaking hot year over the next five years

Wet season rainfall varied across Hawaiʻi

The 2024–2025 wet season in Hawaiʻi, running from October through April, was the second driest in the last 30 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Despite a forecast influenced by a weak La Niña that initially predicted above-average rainfall, especially for leeward areas, most parts of the state recorded below-average totals.

La Niña refers to cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures near the equator, which can influence Hawaiʻi’s rainfall.

• Kauaʻi: Līhuʻe Airport saw just 12.04 inches, marking its second driest season in three decades.

• Oʻahu: Totals ranged from 50% to 90% of average; Honolulu Airport had 9.31 inches.

• Maui County: Kahului and Molokaʻi Airports experienced some of their driest seasons on record.

• Big Island: Windward regions received 40% to 70% of normal rainfall, while Hilo recorded its third driest wet season.

As the islands enter the dry season, NOAA forecasts one mixed plate

• Above-normal rainfall is slightly favored for Kauaʻi and Oʻahu.

• While the Big Island faces below-normal precipitation.

• Maui County and the Big Island already begin the season in moderate drought or worse, increasing the threat of wildfires and water stress.

Communities relying on catchment systems or surface water diversions and non-irrigated farms, are expected to be the most affected.

Drought likely to persist or worsen in some regions, some rainfall for others

Dry conditions have worsened across Maui County and the Big Island, while brief April rain brought temporary relief to O‘ahu and Kaua‘i. Drought remains widespread and is expected to persist through the dry season, according to the weather forecast office in Honolulu.

Current drought conditions

• Extreme drought: Now affecting parts of the Hāmākua, Kaʻū, and South Kohala Districts on the Big Island.

• Severe drought: Covers much of North and South Kohala, Hāmākua, and Kaʻū (Big Island), as well as West Maui, Maui’s central valley, and leeward Moloka‘i.

• Moderate drought: Present across the rest of Maui County and the Big Island, and now includes lower leeward areas of Kaua‘i and O‘ahu.

• Abnormally dry: Conditions continue in other leeward parts of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i.

Recent changes

• Drought conditions worsened on the Big Island and central Lānaʻi.

• Conditions improved in windward O‘ahu, leeward Kaua‘i, and Niʻihau, following early and late April rainfall events.

• April storms brought near-to above-average rainfall to many areas. Typical dry leeward regions remained well below normal overall.

• Streamflows remain low, limiting water production in West Maui and several Big Island watersheds.

• Ranchers in upper Hāmākua, lower Kaʻū, Kaupō, and Upcountry Maui continue to report poor pasture conditions. Water hauling and supplemental feeding remain necessary.

• Upcountry Maui is in Stage 1 Water Shortage in effect.

• South Kohala (Big Island): Water Conservation Notice remains active.

Outlook (Dry Season through October)

• Above-normal rainfall is slightly favored for Kaua‘i and O‘ahu.

• Below-normal rainfall expected for the Big Island.

• Equal chances of above- or below-normal rainfall in Maui County.

• Most existing drought is likely to persist or intensify, except in windward areas of Kaua‘i and O‘ahu, which may benefit from seasonal trade-wind showers.

Wildfire risk rising on Hawai‘i’s drier slopes

Hawai‘i’s wildfire potential is expected to stay low through June, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Conditions are expected to increase in fire potential by July and August, especially on the state’s leeward sides. These are the hot, dry areas shielded from trade winds, like West O‘ahu, South and West Maui, Leeward Moloka‘i, and Kona.

Federal fire officials forecast above-normal wildfire risk for those leeward areas later this summer. These zones dry out faster. With hotter-than-usual weather expected and less rain in the forecast for some islands, grasses and brush could ignite more easily.

This seasonal shift is tied to changes in global weather patterns. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a natural climate cycle that influences rainfall and temperatures, has entered a neutral phase. This means Hawai‘i could see less predictable weather and more heat through the dry season.

Even though parts of the islands saw some growth in grasses after recent rains, vegetation in dry areas remains patchy. In places where the groundcover is thin or stressed from drought, wildfires can start and spread more easily, especially when paired with gusty winds or low humidity.

So far, the state has avoided critical fire conditions this year. No Red Flag Warnings (alerts for dangerous fire weather) have been issued. The only notable fire activity was a controlled burn carried out by the military at Schofield Barracks on O‘ahu.

Quieter hurricane season for Central Pacific forecasted, but cautions remain

The 2025 Central Pacific hurricane season is expected to be less active than usual, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency predicts a 30 percent chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity between June and November, when the season officially runs.

On average, Hawai‘i sees four to five tropical cyclones per season. This year’s outlook suggests fewer storms, influenced by the likely development of La Niña, a climate pattern marked by cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. La Niña tends to increase wind shear and atmospheric stability, both of which can suppress storm formation in the region.

Still, NOAA warns that seasonal forecasts don’t predict the exact number, timing, or track of individual storms. Even quiet seasons can bring damaging impacts.

Officials urge Hawai‘i residents to review emergency plans and stay informed. As NOAA puts it: it only takes one storm.

Most islanders, both lifelong and long-term, know their risk when it comes to tropical storms and the possibility of weather-related impacts to survival.

Plenty of information on that is out there, but let’s take a look at information provided by the Honolulu forecast office on how to know your risk.

Information provided by weather monitoring agencies are usually the same year after year and apply to coastal and inland communities.

High Tide will begin sharing the weeklong campaign topics even though the official Hawaii hurricane preparedness week is over:

The first topic titled “Know Your Risk: Water & Wind.”

Global temperatures likely to break records again by 2029, says United Nations climate agency

The World Meteorological Organization projects that global temperatures will remain at or near record levels over the next five years, intensifying climate-related risks worldwide.

Key findings from the WMO's latest report include:

• 80% likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.

• 86% probability that at least one year in this period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).

• 70% chance that the five-year average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will surpass the 1.5°C threshold.

While the Paris Agreement targets long-term temperature averages, these projections underscore a trend of escalating global warming. The WMO warns that each incremental rise in temperature contributes to more severe heatwaves, intense rainfall, prolonged droughts, accelerated ice melt, ocean warming, and sea-level rise.

The Arctic is expected to experience warming more than three times the global average, with anticipated temperature increases of 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 baseline during the next five extended winters. Additionally, precipitation patterns are projected to shift, with wetter conditions in regions like the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions over the Amazon.

I’m Anthony Albidrez, reporting this High Tide Report. Subscribe, follow, and share.

Stay tuned!